SPARKSFootball intelligence
England Premier LeagueArchived snapshot

Aston Villa vs Man City prediction

Aston Villa
2–1Captured 24 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC
Man City
Captured Historical snapshot · not live odds
Aston Villa20.5%4.88
Draw21.5%4.64
Man City58.0%1.72
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Probability history

No recorded probability history available for this match.

16 bookmakers · consensus

Match winner

CONSENSUS

Aston Villa

Fair probability20.5%

Fair odds (decimal)4.88

Draw

Fair probability21.5%

Fair odds (decimal)4.64

Man City

Fair probability58.0%

Fair odds (decimal)1.72

Fair probability · consensusFair odds · decimalCoverage · 16 booksOldest quote · 24 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC
Aston Villa · Occurred
Draw · Did not occur
Man City · Did not occur
2 bookmakers · consensus

Goals · over / under 2.5

CONSENSUS

Over

Fair probability66.7%

Fair odds (decimal)1.50

Under

Fair probability33.3%

Fair odds (decimal)3.00

Fair probability · consensusFair odds · decimalCoverage · 2 booksOldest quote · 24 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC
Over · Occurred
Under · Did not occur
8 bookmakers · consensus

Goals · over / under 3.5

CONSENSUS

Over

Fair probability47.2%

Fair odds (decimal)2.12

Under

Fair probability52.8%

Fair odds (decimal)1.89

Fair probability · consensusFair odds · decimalCoverage · 8 booksOldest quote · 24 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC
Over · Did not occur
Under · Occurred

Unlisted markets did not have sufficient eligible evidence at capture. Rounded percentages may differ from 100% by 0.1 points.

How probabilities are built

Market probability is derived from consensus bookmaker prices after removing estimated margin. Each bookmaker must quote the complete market; we take the median outcome probability and normalize to 100%.

Fair odds are the reciprocal of that probability. Coverage requires at least two bookmakers, and quote age is limited before capture. Prices can change after capture. This is a market estimate, not an AI forecast or a guarantee.

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