SPARKSFootball intelligence
Spain La LigaArchived snapshot

Barcelona vs Real Madrid prediction

Barcelona
1–2Captured 24 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC
Real Madrid
Captured Historical snapshot · not live odds
Barcelona58.6%1.71
Draw17.4%5.73
Real Madrid24.0%4.17
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Probability history

No recorded probability history available for this match.

16 bookmakers · consensus

Match winner

CONSENSUS

Barcelona

Fair probability58.6%

Fair odds (decimal)1.71

Draw

Fair probability17.4%

Fair odds (decimal)5.73

Real Madrid

Fair probability24.0%

Fair odds (decimal)4.17

Fair probability · consensusFair odds · decimalCoverage · 16 booksOldest quote · 24 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC
Barcelona · Did not occur
Draw · Did not occur
Real Madrid · Occurred
2 bookmakers · consensus

Goals · over / under 2.5

CONSENSUS

Over

Fair probability80.9%

Fair odds (decimal)1.24

Under

Fair probability19.1%

Fair odds (decimal)5.23

Fair probability · consensusFair odds · decimalCoverage · 2 booksOldest quote · 24 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC
Over · Occurred
Under · Did not occur
4 bookmakers · consensus

Goals · over / under 4.5

CONSENSUS

Over

Fair probability46.7%

Fair odds (decimal)2.14

Under

Fair probability53.3%

Fair odds (decimal)1.88

Fair probability · consensusFair odds · decimalCoverage · 4 booksOldest quote · 24 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC
Over · Did not occur
Under · Occurred

Unlisted markets did not have sufficient eligible evidence at capture. Rounded percentages may differ from 100% by 0.1 points.

How probabilities are built

Market probability is derived from consensus bookmaker prices after removing estimated margin. Each bookmaker must quote the complete market; we take the median outcome probability and normalize to 100%.

Fair odds are the reciprocal of that probability. Coverage requires at least two bookmakers, and quote age is limited before capture. Prices can change after capture. This is a market estimate, not an AI forecast or a guarantee.

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