Public match outlook · England Premier League

Everton vs Chelsea Prediction & Fair Odds

17 Oct 2026, 11:30 UTC · Upcoming fixture · Market snapshot captured 16 Oct 2026, 09:49 UTC

Captured 16 Oct 2026, 09:49 UTCRefresh overdue · historical prices

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16 bookmakers · consensus

Match winner

CONSENSUS

Everton

Fair probability29.8%

Fair odds (decimal)3.35

Draw

Fair probability26.0%

Fair odds (decimal)3.84

Chelsea

Fair probability44.2%

Fair odds (decimal)2.26

Fair probability · consensusFair odds · decimalCoverage · 16 booksOldest quote · 16 Oct 2026, 09:00 UTC

5 bookmakers · consensus

Goals · over / under 2.5

CONSENSUS

Over

Fair probability56.9%

Fair odds (decimal)1.76

Under

Fair probability43.1%

Fair odds (decimal)2.32

Fair probability · consensusFair odds · decimalCoverage · 5 booksOldest quote · 16 Oct 2026, 09:00 UTC

Probability history

How the market moved

Retained probability history is not published on this page. Open Matches or Ask when history is available for this fixture.

Unlisted markets did not have sufficient eligible evidence at capture. Rounded percentages may differ from 100% by 0.1 points.

Methodology

How to read Sparks Market Probability

Sparks Market Probability is derived from consensus bookmaker prices after removing estimated bookmaker margin. Each bookmaker must quote the complete market. We take the median probability for each outcome, then normalize the outcomes to total 100%.

Sparks Fair Odds are the reciprocal of that probability. Coverage uses at least two bookmakers, with quote ages limited to 90 minutes when captured. Prices can change after capture. This is a market estimate, not an AI forecast or a guarantee.

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