Fair probability · consensusFair odds · decimalCoverage · 16 booksOldest quote · 11 Oct 2026, 21:00 UTC
3 bookmakers · consensus
Goals · over / under 1.5
CONSENSUS
Over
Fair probability62.2%
Fair odds (decimal)1.61
Under
Fair probability37.8%
Fair odds (decimal)2.64
Fair probability · consensusFair odds · decimalCoverage · 3 booksOldest quote · 11 Oct 2026, 21:00 UTC
3 bookmakers · consensus
Goals · over / under 2.5
CONSENSUS
Over
Fair probability36.5%
Fair odds (decimal)2.74
Under
Fair probability63.5%
Fair odds (decimal)1.58
Fair probability · consensusFair odds · decimalCoverage · 3 booksOldest quote · 11 Oct 2026, 21:00 UTC
Probability history
How the market moved
Retained probability history is not published on this page. Open Matches or Ask when history is available for this fixture.
Unlisted markets did not have sufficient eligible evidence at capture. Rounded percentages may differ from 100% by 0.1 points.
Methodology
How to read Sparks Market Probability
Sparks Market Probability is derived from consensus bookmaker prices after removing estimated bookmaker margin. Each bookmaker must quote the complete market. We take the median probability for each outcome, then normalize the outcomes to total 100%.
Sparks Fair Odds are the reciprocal of that probability. Coverage uses at least two bookmakers, with quote ages limited to 90 minutes when captured. Prices can change after capture. This is a market estimate, not an AI forecast or a guarantee.