SPARKSFootball intelligence
Mexico Liga MXArchived snapshot

Leon vs Toluca prediction

Leon
1–1Captured 24 Oct 2026, 18:15 UTC
Toluca
Captured Historical snapshot · not live odds
Leon26.7%3.74
Draw25.6%3.91
Toluca47.7%2.10
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Probability history

No recorded probability history available for this match.

16 bookmakers · consensus

Match winner

CONSENSUS

Leon

Fair probability26.7%

Fair odds (decimal)3.74

Draw

Fair probability25.6%

Fair odds (decimal)3.91

Toluca

Fair probability47.7%

Fair odds (decimal)2.10

Fair probability · consensusFair odds · decimalCoverage · 16 booksOldest quote · 24 Oct 2026, 18:15 UTC
Leon · Did not occur
Draw · Occurred
Toluca · Did not occur
2 bookmakers · consensus

Goals · over / under 2.5

CONSENSUS

Over

Fair probability60.9%

Fair odds (decimal)1.64

Under

Fair probability39.1%

Fair odds (decimal)2.56

Fair probability · consensusFair odds · decimalCoverage · 2 booksOldest quote · 24 Oct 2026, 18:15 UTC
Over · Did not occur
Under · Occurred
4 bookmakers · consensus

Goals · over / under 3.5

CONSENSUS

Over

Fair probability41.4%

Fair odds (decimal)2.41

Under

Fair probability58.6%

Fair odds (decimal)1.71

Fair probability · consensusFair odds · decimalCoverage · 4 booksOldest quote · 24 Oct 2026, 18:15 UTC
Over · Did not occur
Under · Occurred

Unlisted markets did not have sufficient eligible evidence at capture. Rounded percentages may differ from 100% by 0.1 points.

How probabilities are built

Market probability is derived from consensus bookmaker prices after removing estimated margin. Each bookmaker must quote the complete market; we take the median outcome probability and normalize to 100%.

Fair odds are the reciprocal of that probability. Coverage requires at least two bookmakers, and quote age is limited before capture. Prices can change after capture. This is a market estimate, not an AI forecast or a guarantee.

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