SPARKSFootball intelligence
Portugal Primeira LigaArchived snapshot

Nacional vs Braga prediction

Nacional
1–0Captured 24 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC
Braga
Captured Historical snapshot · not live odds
Nacional16.6%6.01
Draw23.3%4.29
Braga60.1%1.66
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Probability history

No recorded probability history available for this match.

16 bookmakers · consensus

Match winner

CONSENSUS

Nacional

Fair probability16.6%

Fair odds (decimal)6.01

Draw

Fair probability23.3%

Fair odds (decimal)4.29

Braga

Fair probability60.1%

Fair odds (decimal)1.66

Fair probability · consensusFair odds · decimalCoverage · 16 booksOldest quote · 24 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC
Nacional · Occurred
Draw · Did not occur
Braga · Did not occur
11 bookmakers · consensus

Goals · over / under 2.5

CONSENSUS

Over

Fair probability50.5%

Fair odds (decimal)1.98

Under

Fair probability49.5%

Fair odds (decimal)2.02

Fair probability · consensusFair odds · decimalCoverage · 11 booksOldest quote · 24 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC
Over · Did not occur
Under · Occurred

Unlisted markets did not have sufficient eligible evidence at capture. Rounded percentages may differ from 100% by 0.1 points.

How probabilities are built

Market probability is derived from consensus bookmaker prices after removing estimated margin. Each bookmaker must quote the complete market; we take the median outcome probability and normalize to 100%.

Fair odds are the reciprocal of that probability. Coverage requires at least two bookmakers, and quote age is limited before capture. Prices can change after capture. This is a market estimate, not an AI forecast or a guarantee.

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