16 bookmakers · consensus
CONSENSUSMatch winner
Rio Ave41.3%2.42
Draw28.8%3.47
Nacional29.8%3.35
ProbabilityFair odds · reciprocalCoverage · 16 booksOldest quote · 10 Oct 2026, 20:50 UTC
Public match outlook · Portugal Primeira Liga
Rio Ave vs Nacional Prediction & Fair Odds
· Upcoming fixture · Market snapshot captured 10 Oct 2026, 21:43 UTC
Captured Refresh overdue · historical prices
Ask SmartSparks about this match5 bookmakers · consensus
CONSENSUSGoals · over / under 2.5
Over45.4%2.20
Under54.6%1.83
ProbabilityFair odds · reciprocalCoverage · 5 booksOldest quote · 10 Oct 2026, 20:50 UTC
How the market moved
Retained probability history is not published on this page. Open Match Explorer or Ask when history evidence is available for this fixture — no sample chart is shown.
Unlisted markets did not have sufficient eligible evidence at capture. Rounded percentages may differ from 100% by 0.1 points.
How to read Sparks Market Probability
Sparks Market Probability is derived from consensus bookmaker prices after removing estimated bookmaker margin. Each bookmaker must quote the complete market. We take the median probability for each outcome, then normalize the outcomes to total 100%.
Sparks Fair Odds are the reciprocal of that probability. Coverage uses at least two bookmakers, with quote ages limited to 90 minutes when captured. Prices can change after capture. This is a market estimate, not an AI forecast or a guarantee.
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Fixture list with market probabilities. Open a match for full fair odds.
Portugal Primeira Liga
- Benfica vs Guimaraes · Home 78.1% / Draw 14.6% / Away 7.3%
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- Famalicao vs Alverca · Home 50.2% / Draw 28.1% / Away 21.7%
3 of 3 fixtures