SPARKSFootball intelligence

Liverpool vs Villarreal prediction

Liverpool
VSCaptured 20 Oct 2026, 06:30 UTC
Villarreal
Captured Pre-match market snapshot
Liverpool63.9%1.56
Draw20.3%4.92
Villarreal15.7%6.36
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Probability history

No recorded probability history available for this match.

16 bookmakers · consensus

Match winner

CONSENSUS

Liverpool

Fair probability63.9%

Fair odds (decimal)1.56

Draw

Fair probability20.3%

Fair odds (decimal)4.92

Villarreal

Fair probability15.7%

Fair odds (decimal)6.36

Fair probability · consensusFair odds · decimalCoverage · 16 booksOldest quote · 20 Oct 2026, 06:30 UTC
2 bookmakers · consensus

Goals · over / under 2.5

CONSENSUS

Over

Fair probability65.0%

Fair odds (decimal)1.54

Under

Fair probability35.0%

Fair odds (decimal)2.85

Fair probability · consensusFair odds · decimalCoverage · 2 booksOldest quote · 20 Oct 2026, 06:30 UTC
5 bookmakers · consensus

Goals · over / under 3.5

CONSENSUS

Over

Fair probability44.6%

Fair odds (decimal)2.24

Under

Fair probability55.4%

Fair odds (decimal)1.81

Fair probability · consensusFair odds · decimalCoverage · 5 booksOldest quote · 20 Oct 2026, 06:30 UTC

Unlisted markets did not have sufficient eligible evidence at capture. Rounded percentages may differ from 100% by 0.1 points.

How probabilities are built

Market probability is derived from consensus bookmaker prices after removing estimated margin. Each bookmaker must quote the complete market; we take the median outcome probability and normalize to 100%.

Fair odds are the reciprocal of that probability. Coverage requires at least two bookmakers, and quote age is limited before capture. Prices can change after capture. This is a market estimate, not an AI forecast or a guarantee.

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