SPARKSODDS
Snapshot archiveUpdated 1h 17m ago

Germany Bundesliga I

Mainz vs Bayer Leverkusen
Predictions & Fair Odds

· Upcoming fixture

Captured Pre-match market snapshot

Match winner

16 bookmakers

Mainz

32.4%
Fair odds
3.08
Bookmakers
16
Book probability range
31.5%–33.1%

Draw

24.9%
Fair odds
4.02
Bookmakers
16
Book probability range
24.1%–25.7%

Bayer Leverkusen

42.7%
Fair odds
2.34
Bookmakers
16
Book probability range
42.1%–44.2%

Oldest contributing quote: 8 Oct 2026, 21:40 UTC

Goals · over / under 2.5

2 bookmakers

Over

65.1%
Fair odds
1.54
Bookmakers
2
Book probability range
64.5%–65.6%

Under

34.9%
Fair odds
2.86
Bookmakers
2
Book probability range
34.4%–35.5%

Oldest contributing quote: 8 Oct 2026, 21:40 UTC

Goals · over / under 3.5

5 bookmakers

Over

45.0%
Fair odds
2.22
Bookmakers
5
Book probability range
44.1%–45.8%

Under

55.0%
Fair odds
1.82
Bookmakers
5
Book probability range
54.2%–55.9%

Oldest contributing quote: 8 Oct 2026, 21:40 UTC

Unlisted markets did not have sufficient eligible evidence at capture. Rounded percentages may differ from 100% by 0.1 points.

How to read Sparks Market Probability

Sparks Market Probability is derived from consensus bookmaker prices after removing estimated bookmaker margin. Each bookmaker must quote the complete market. We take the median probability for each outcome, then normalize the outcomes to total 100%.

Sparks Fair Odds are the reciprocal of that probability. Coverage uses at least two bookmakers, with quote ages limited to 90 minutes when captured. Prices can change after capture. This is a market estimate, not an AI forecast or a guarantee.

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