SPARKSODDS
Snapshot archiveUpdated 1h 17m ago

Spain La Liga

Real Madrid vs Villarreal
Predictions & Fair Odds

· Upcoming fixture

Captured Pre-match market snapshot

Match winner

16 bookmakers

Real Madrid

68.9%
Fair odds
1.45
Bookmakers
16
Book probability range
67.6%–73.0%

Draw

16.9%
Fair odds
5.90
Bookmakers
16
Book probability range
15.2%–18.3%

Villarreal

14.2%
Fair odds
7.06
Bookmakers
16
Book probability range
11.9%–15.3%

Oldest contributing quote: 8 Oct 2026, 21:40 UTC

Goals · over / under 2.5

2 bookmakers

Over

73.8%
Fair odds
1.35
Bookmakers
2
Book probability range
73.2%–74.5%

Under

26.2%
Fair odds
3.82
Bookmakers
2
Book probability range
25.5%–26.8%

Oldest contributing quote: 8 Oct 2026, 21:40 UTC

Goals · over / under 3.5

4 bookmakers

Over

55.1%
Fair odds
1.82
Bookmakers
4
Book probability range
54.7%–55.3%

Under

44.9%
Fair odds
2.23
Bookmakers
4
Book probability range
44.7%–45.3%

Oldest contributing quote: 8 Oct 2026, 21:40 UTC

Unlisted markets did not have sufficient eligible evidence at capture. Rounded percentages may differ from 100% by 0.1 points.

How to read Sparks Market Probability

Sparks Market Probability is derived from consensus bookmaker prices after removing estimated bookmaker margin. Each bookmaker must quote the complete market. We take the median probability for each outcome, then normalize the outcomes to total 100%.

Sparks Fair Odds are the reciprocal of that probability. Coverage uses at least two bookmakers, with quote ages limited to 90 minutes when captured. Prices can change after capture. This is a market estimate, not an AI forecast or a guarantee.

Inspect bookmaker prices in Market Explorer →

Continue your research

Inspect this match’s bookmaker prices →More Spain La Liga predictions →Read market research →

Related fixtures

Fixture list with market probabilities. Open a match for full fair odds.

Spain La Liga